2-7 Triple Draw: When Should You Draw and When Should You Stand Pat?

It assumes you know the rules and the order of play. If not, read how to play 2-7 Triple Draw first. For how deuce-to-seven hands rank, including why 7-5-4-3-2 is the best hand and why the ace is a problem, see low poker hand rankings.

Three things: your hand, your opponents' draw counts, and the number of draws left. Almost every stand-pat question is answered by putting those three together.

1. Your hand's strength

A made hand is judged by its top card first, then by the cards under it. A pat 7 is a monster. A smooth 8 (8-5-4-3-2, 8-6-4-3-2, 8-6-5-3-2) is a very strong hand. A rough 8 (anything starting 8-7) is good but beatable. A 9 is a medium hand whose value swings wildly with the situation, and a 10 or jack is a hand you stand pat with only when the alternative is worse.

A one-card draw is judged by how many cards complete it to a good hand without making a straight. 7-4-3-2 is the best draw in the game: every 5, 6 and 8 makes a 7 or an 8. 7-5-4-3 looks similar but a 6 makes a straight, so it has a third fewer outs. The counting section below shows the arithmetic.

A two-card draw is a project. With three draws left it is a fine hand to play; with one draw left it is almost never worth a bet.

2. How many cards your opponents draw

A player who draws three has a one- or two-card hand and needs a lot of help. A player who draws two has three good cards and is roughly where you were predraw. A player who draws one has four cards and is one card from a made hand. A player who stands pat says they already have one, or wants you to think so.

The more cards an opponent takes, the weaker the hand you can stand pat with. Against a two-card draw, a pat 9 is a favorite. Against a one-card draw with two draws to come, the same 9 is close to a coin flip, and a rough 9 is often an underdog.

3. How many draws are left

Each draw an opponent gets is another chance to outdraw a made hand. A pat 9 with one draw left is a strong hand against a drawer. The same 9 with three draws left is weak, because the drawer gets three shots at it, and your own four best cards might be worth more as a draw to a 7 than the 9 is as a made hand.

Position matters too. The player to the left of the button draws first, so if you are on the button you see every opponent's draw count before you choose your own. Out of position you have to decide first, which is one more reason to play fewer hands there.

The decision table

These are starting guidelines, not fixed rules. Pot size, position, and what you know about the specific opponent all move the line.

Count the cards you cannot see, then count how many of them make a hand you want. The cards you can see are the five in your hand plus every card you threw earlier in the hand. Everything else is unseen, including whatever your opponents threw, because you did not see it. (At a full table the dealer may reshuffle the discards into the deck for a late draw; then your own discards can come back, so count them as unseen again.)

Three rules make 2-7 out counting different from Hold'em:

• A card that makes a straight is not an out. It makes one of the worst hands in the game.
• A card that pairs you is not an out.
• An ace is never an out, because aces are high.

Take the draw 7-5-4-3 with a king thrown away: 7♠ 5♣ 4♦ 3♥ K♠. You have seen five cards, so 47 are unseen. There are four cards of every rank.

So 7-5-4-3 has 8 outs in 47 to an 8 or better, and only 4 of them make a 7. Compare the draw 7-4-3-2: a 5 makes 7-5-4-3-2, a 6 makes 7-6-4-3-2 and an 8 makes 8-7-4-3-2, none of them a straight, so it has 12 outs in 47. That gap, 8 against 12, is why a draw with a hole in it (7-4-3-2, 7-5-3-2) is worth more than a draw whose cards run together (7-5-4-3, 6-5-4-3). The worked hands below give the full count for every one-card draw.

Each hand states its assumptions first, because the same five cards can call for different plays in different spots. All bets are in a 2/4 game: small bet 2 predraw and after the first draw, big bet 4 after the second and third draws.

Decision 1: a smooth 8 against a two-card draw, two draws left

8♣ 5♦ 4♠ 3♥ 2♣

Assumptions:

• Heads-up. You are on the button and raised predraw with 8♣ 5♦ 4♠ 3♥ J♦; the big blind called.
• First draw: the big blind drew two. You threw the J♦ and caught the 2♣.
• After the first draw the big blind checked, you bet 2, and they called.
• Second draw: the big blind draws two again. Two draws are left.

Reasoning: 8-5-4-3-2 is the best possible 8. Only a 7 beats it, and only four 7-high hands exist by rank. Your opponent is holding three cards and needs two more good ones, with two tries, to get there. Even a player drawing one would be an underdog against this hand over two draws; a player drawing two is a big underdog.

Breaking makes no sense. If you threw the 8 to draw at 5-4-3-2, 46 cards would be unseen (your five plus the J♦): four sevens would improve you, three eights would give you back the same hand, and the other 39 would leave you worse than what you hold now.

Choice: stand pat, and bet every street. Keep betting after the second draw and, unless the big blind stands pat and raises, after the third.

Decision 2: a rough 9 against a one-card draw, two draws left

9♥ 8♣ 7♦ 4♠ 2♥

Assumptions:

• Heads-up. You are on the button and raised predraw with 9♥ 8♣ 4♠ 2♥ A♦; the big blind called.
• First draw: the big blind drew one. You threw the A♦ and caught the 7♦.
• After the first draw the big blind checked, you bet 2, and they called.
• Second draw: the big blind draws one again. Two draws are left.

Reasoning: 9-8-7-4-2 is a made hand, but it is about as rough as a 9 gets. Any 8, any 7 and most 9s beat it. Your opponent has a four-card hand and two draws to fill it. A smooth four-card 8 draw has 12 outs in each draw, so over two draws they make an 8 or better close to half the time, and many of the 9s they catch beat you too. Standing pat here means paying two big bets to find out whether a one-card draw got there twice.

Your alternative is a good one. Throw the 9♥ and you hold 8-7-4-2. Seen cards: the five in your hand plus the A♦, so 46 are unseen.

• Any 3 makes 8-7-4-3-2: 4 outs.
• Any 5 makes 8-7-5-4-2: 4 outs.
• Any 6 makes 8-7-6-4-2, no straight because there is no 5: 4 outs.

That is 12 outs in 46 to an 8, and you have two draws to hit them. If you miss, three nines (the 9♥ is gone) give you back exactly the hand you just broke, and you still have one more draw.

Choice: break, throw the 9♥, and draw one to 8-7-4-2. With the same hand and only one draw left, stand pat instead: a one-card draw hits an 8 or better about one time in four on a single draw, and the pat 9 is then the favorite.

Decision 3: breaking a pat 9 on the first draw

9♣ 7♥ 5♦ 3♠ 2♣

Assumptions:

• Three players. You called a raise on the button; the raiser and the big blind are both in.
• First draw: the big blind drew two, the raiser drew one. You act last. Three draws are left.

Reasoning: You were dealt a pat 9, which feels like a gift, but 9-7-5-3-2 is only a 9. Against two opponents who each get three draws, a 9 has to survive six chances to be outdrawn. Against a single opponent drawing two you could keep it; here you cannot.

Look at what is underneath the 9: 7-5-3-2 is a premium draw. Seen cards: your five, so 47 are unseen.

• Any 4 makes 7-5-4-3-2, the best hand in the game: 4 outs.
• Any 6 makes 7-6-5-3-2, no straight because there is no 4: 4 outs.
• Any 8 makes 8-7-5-3-2: 4 outs.

That is 12 outs in 47, 8 of them to a 7, and you get up to three tries. If you keep drawing, you make an 8 or better by the last draw roughly three times in five. When you miss, three nines give you back the pat 9 you started with.

Choice: break, throw the 9♣, and draw one to 7-5-3-2.

Decision 4: a pair or an ace, so throw the bad card

7♥ 4♠ 3♥ 3♣ 2♣

A♥ 7♦ 4♣ 3♠ 2♦

Assumptions:

• Two separate deals, each on the first draw with three draws left.
• With the pair: four players, you are on the button, and the three players ahead of you drew two, two and one.
• With the ace: heads-up, you are in the big blind and draw first.

Reasoning: A pair is almost never a hand you stand pat with. Any no-pair hand that isn't a straight or flush beats it, including an ace-high hand. And in 2-7 the ace is the highest card in the deck, so A-7-4-3-2 is just ace-high: it beats a pair but loses to every pat king, queen, jack, 10, 9, 8 and 7. A-5-4-3-2 is no better, because the ace only plays high and it is not a straight.

Throw one 3, or the ace, and either way you hold 7-4-3-2, the best one-card draw in the game. Seen cards: your five, so 47 are unseen.

• Any 5 makes 7-5-4-3-2, the best hand: 4 outs.
• Any 6 makes 7-6-4-3-2, the second-best hand, no straight because there is no 5: 4 outs.
• Any 8 makes 8-7-4-3-2: 4 outs.

That is 12 outs in 47 to an 8 or better, 8 of them to one of the two best hands. With the pair, the two threes left would pair you again, so they are not outs. Which 3 you throw does not matter here, because your four cards hold three suits either way; when it does matter, keep the card that leaves your suits most mixed.

Choice: throw a 3 or the A♥ and draw one to 7-4-3-2. Never draw two to "get rid of the 7": the 7 is the top card of the best hands you can make.

Decision 5: the straight trap

6♦ 5♣ 4♠ 3♠ 2♦

Assumptions:

• Heads-up. You are on the button and raised predraw; the big blind called.
• First draw: the big blind drew two. Three draws are left.

Reasoning: Five low cards in a row look wonderful and are a disaster. 6-5-4-3-2 is a straight, and in 2-7 a straight loses to any pair, any two pair, any trips, and every no-pair hand that isn't itself a straight or flush. You must break it. The only question is which end to throw, and the answer is not close.

Throw the 6♦ and you hold 5-4-3-2. Seen cards: your five, so 47 are unseen.

• Any 7 makes 7-5-4-3-2, the best hand in the game: 4 outs.
• Any 8 makes 8-5-4-3-2, the best possible 8: 4 outs.
• Any 9 makes 9-5-4-3-2, the best possible 9: 4 outs.

That is 8 outs in 47 to an 8 or better, 4 of them to the nuts, and 12 to a 9 or better. The three remaining sixes would rebuild the straight, so they are not outs.

Throw the 2♦ instead and you hold 6-5-4-3. Now a 7 makes 7-6-5-4-3, a straight, and the three remaining deuces make the straight you just broke. Your only outs to an 8 are the four eights, for 8-6-5-4-3, the worst 8-6, which loses to every 8 the other draw would make. Seven cards remake a straight and four make an 8: that draw is strictly worse.

Choice: throw the 6♦ and draw one to 5-4-3-2.

The flush trap works the same way. 8♥ 5♥ 4♥ 3♥ 2♥ is a flush, not an 8. Throw the 8♥ and draw to 5♥ 4♥ 3♥ 2♥, but count carefully: every heart you catch makes another flush, so only the three non-heart sevens and the three non-heart eights are outs, 6 in 47 instead of 8.

Decision 6: an opponent stands pat on the first draw (snowing)

8♦ 6♠ 3♣ 2♥ K♣

Assumptions:

• Heads-up. The button raised predraw and you called in the big blind.
• First draw: you drew first, threw the K♣ and caught the Q♥. The button stood pat.
• After the draw you checked and the button bet 2. Two draws are left.

Reasoning: A player who stands pat on the first draw was either dealt a pat hand or is snowing, which means standing pat with nothing and betting to make you fold. Dealt pat hands are rare: about one deal in 49 is a pat 9 or better, and about one in 21 is a pat 10 or better. A predraw raise makes a real hand somewhat more likely, but it also describes exactly the hand a snow is built on. How often a particular opponent does this is a read you build over many hands, not something you can know from one.

What an early pat means for you is simple: do not fold a good draw for one small bet. You are drawing to 8-6-3-2 again, throwing the Q♥. Seen cards: your five plus the K♣, so 46 are unseen.

• Any 4 makes 8-6-4-3-2: 4 outs.
• Any 5 makes 8-6-5-3-2, no straight because there is no 4 or 7: 4 outs.
• Any 7 makes 8-7-6-3-2: 4 outs.

That is 12 outs in 46 to an 8, with two draws to hit them, in a pot that already holds 10 after their bet. If the pat hand is real and better than an 8, you lose a little when you get there. If it is a snow, you win the pot the moment they have to show down, and your call now is what makes that possible.

Choice: call the small bet and keep drawing one. If you make your 8 and they keep betting, call down heads-up; if you miss by the last draw, you can fold to a big bet without regret. Do not try to "re-snow" a player who patted first unless you have a strong reason to think they are bluffing.

Decision 7: the last draw, heads-up, against a pat hand

9♣ 8♦ 5♠ 4♥ 2♣

Assumptions:

• Heads-up. You are on the button and raised predraw with 8♦ 5♠ 4♥ 2♣ Q♦; the big blind called. Pot: 8.
• First draw: the big blind drew two; you threw the Q♦ and caught the K♣. They checked, you bet 2, they called. Pot: 12.
• Second draw: the big blind drew one; you threw the K♣ and caught the 9♣. They checked, you bet 4, they called. Pot: 20.
• Third draw: the big blind stands pat. One draw is left, and you act after them.

Reasoning: You have two decisions, and the second one depends on the first.

At the draw: your 9-8-5-4-2 is a middling 9. The big blind drew two, then one, and now stops. That usually means they made something they like, which from a one-card draw is most often an 8 or a 9, sometimes a 10 they will try to show down, and sometimes nothing at all. If you break the 9 and draw to 8-5-4-2, you have seen seven cards (your five, the Q♦ and the K♣), so 45 are unseen: any 3 (8-5-4-3-2), any 6 (8-6-5-4-2) and any 7 (8-7-5-4-2) make an 8, 12 outs in 45, about one in four. Breaking turns a made 9 into a 27 percent draw. That is only right if you are confident their pat hand beats a 9, and against a player who pats 10s or snows, it is not.

After the draw: you stand pat, they bet 4, and the pot is 24. You are getting 6 to 1, so you need to win about one time in seven. Your 9-8-5 beats every 10, every snow and the rough nines 9-8-6 and 9-8-7. It loses to every 7 or 8 and to the smoother nines. Unless this specific opponent has shown you they never pat anything worse than an 8 and never bluff, a one-in-seven chance is easy to find.

Choice: stand pat, then call the big bet. Fold only against an opponent you have real evidence is honest and tight in this spot. Folding a 9 heads-up for one bet at 6 to 1 is a much bigger leak than paying off a real 8 once in a while.

Everything above gets tighter multiway. A pat 9 that is a favorite heads-up against a two-card draw is an underdog against three drawers. A rough 8 you would stand pat with heads-up becomes a break candidate when two opponents draw one. The decision table's "stand pat" rows assume one or two opponents; add a notch of caution for each extra player who is still drawing.